Paris-Nice - Stage 7 | Nice - Auron

Stage 7 of Paris-Nice presents a pivotal mountain test, setting the scene for a decisive GC shake-up. With a demanding mountain profile, this is the penultimate opportunity for climbers to stake their claim, culminating in the highly anticipated showdown between Juan Ayuso and Jonas Vingegaard that has defined pre-race narratives.

Our model strongly favours Juan Ayuso (41.2% win probability), reflecting his TIER 1 favourite status and robust form throughout the race. The Lidl-Trek rider is perfectly suited for this mountainous terrain, poised to extend any GC advantage or reclaim lost time. Close behind, Jonas Vingegaard (17.5%) remains a formidable challenger. The two-time Grand Tour winner's pedigree on explosive routes ensures he will push Ayuso to the limit, making this a true battle of climbing titans.

Beyond the top two, Carlos Rodríguez (8.4%) stands as a significant threat. The Ineos Grenadiers climber possesses the ability to challenge for the stage win or secure a valuable podium spot, particularly if the lead duo begins to mark each other heavily. Riders like Daniel Felipe Martínez and Aleksandr Vlasov from Red Bull - BORA - hansgrohe also offer strong climbing credentials and potential tactical plays.

While there are no critical absences impacting the immediate favourites, the demanding nature of a late-race mountain stage means fatigue will play a crucial role. Every watt will count as the battle for the yellow jersey intensifies towards the finish.