Paris-Nice - Stage 4 | Bourges - Uchon

This pivotal mountain stage is set to ignite the overall classification battle, with all eyes on the anticipated showdown between Juan Ayuso and Jonas Vingegaard. The rugged profile guarantees a relentless test for the peloton, and this is where the race for the yellow jersey will truly begin.

Our model assigns Juan Ayuso (41.2%) a significant win probability, reflecting the widespread pre-race narrative positioning him as a top favourite on this type of terrain. Lidl-Trek will be keen to consolidate his strong position. Trailing him, Jonas Vingegaard (17.5%) faces a crucial day to press his GC claims, as highlighted by recent analyses. The Dane’s climbing prowess is undeniable, and Team Visma | Lease a Bike will aim to isolate rivals on the final ascents. Carlos Rodríguez (8.4%) from Ineos Grenadiers also presents a serious threat, capable of exploiting any tactical lulls.

Further down the probabilities, Daniel Felipe Martínez (6.3%) and Aleksandr Vlasov (4.9%) lead the charge for Red Bull - BORA - hansgrohe, offering multiple tactical cards. However, TIER 2 contenders like Brandon McNulty and Kévin Vauquelin, both identified as podium contenders in previews, could prove dangerous. If the main favourites mark each other closely, an opportunistic move from one of these strong climbers could well upset the day’s predictions and snatch a stage victory.