Paris-Nice - Stage 2 | Épône - Montargis

This stage presents the first significant test for the general classification contenders, featuring a challenging "mountain" profile early in Paris-Nice. The race has been billed as a showdown between Juan Ayuso and Jonas Vingegaard, and today could mark the opening salvos in that battle for the Maillot Jaune. The challenging terrain ensures a selective finish, far from a typical sprint stage despite some early season chatter around such opportunities.

Our model strongly backs Juan Ayuso, giving him a formidable 41.2% win probability. The Lidl-Trek rider arrives as a TIER 1 favourite and is widely touted across media as a top pick for these explosive routes. Jonas Vingegaard, at 17.5%, remains a potent threat; the Team Visma | Lease a Bike leader is always formidable on climbs and will undoubtedly look to assert himself. Ineos Grenadiers' Carlos Rodríguez (8.4%) rounds out our top three, a consistent performer capable of challenging the very best on demanding terrain.

While the top two command attention, riders like Daniel Felipe Martínez and Aleksandr Vlasov from Red Bull - BORA - hansgrohe present a strong tactical card for their team, both appearing in our top five. Keep an eye on Brandon McNulty as a potential dark horse; the TIER 2 contender from UAE Team Emirates has the power to surprise if the stage features punchy climbs that aren't pure summit finishes. No major absences or significant adverse conditions are signaling a disruption to the predicted order.