Tirreno-Adriatico - Stage 2 | Camaiore - San Gimignano

Stage 2 of Tirreno-Adriatico presents the first significant test for the peloton away from the clock, shifting focus to a hilly 206 km parcours. After Filippo Ganna's emphatic Stage 1 time trial victory, the question now turns to who can conquer the undulating terrain, which promises a demanding day and likely a reduced group sprint or a strong late attack. This stage will begin to shape the general classification picture for the punchier riders and Classics specialists.

Our model surprisingly places Filippo Ganna as the top favourite despite the hills, a testament to his phenomenal current form and perhaps an indication that the climbs aren't insurmountable for a rider of his power. However, the terrain undoubtedly plays more to the strengths of Primož Roglič and Wout Van Aert. Roglič started his season strongly in the TT and thrives on punchy climbs, making him a prime candidate for a reduced sprint. Similarly, Van Aert, with his proven Classics pedigree and a "Strade Bianche aftertaste" mentioned in recent news, finds this hilly profile perfectly suited to his capabilities.

Keep an eye on Matteo Jorgenson as a potential disruptor. While he lost ground in the opening TT, his talent for demanding hilly races is well-established, and his high model probability suggests he could bounce back strongly here, potentially setting up a tactical advantage for Team Visma | Lease a Bike alongside Van Aert. With no major rider absences or specific weather concerns noted, the stage is set for a pure test of strength and tactical acumen on roads that demand constant attention.