E3 Saxo Classic

The E3 Saxo Classic serves as a crucial barometer for the upcoming cobbled Monuments, with its challenging parcours mirroring the demands of the Tour of Flanders. This year, the key storyline revolves around the formidable presence of Mathieu van der Poel, who arrives as the overwhelming favourite following a tactical masterclass at Tirreno-Adriatico, indicating supreme early-season form.

Our model places Mathieu van der Poel with a significant 50.8% win probability, a testament to his unmatched power and suitability for E3's short, sharp climbs and cobbled sections. He will be the rider to beat. Chasing him is Christophe Laporte, our second favourite, a proven classics specialist known for his explosive acceleration and ability to navigate chaotic finales. Mads Pedersen, with a 7.0% chance, is another strong contender, bringing his powerful sprint and experience on the cobbles to the fore, making him a perennial threat if he can stay with the front group.

While Van der Poel is the clear standout, the race will be a battle for the podium and an attempt to disrupt his predicted dominance. Riders like Dylan Van Baarle, a past winner of similar races, could be a dark horse if the favourites mark each other out. Notable absences include Tadej Pogačar and Wout van Aert, whose presence would typically splinter the race further, potentially opening up different tactical avenues for the remaining top contenders to challenge Van der Poel.